BTC · 8 full years of history · updated dailyBitcoin seasonality
What held for Bitcoin in the past and what did not. At the top is the list of patterns that held on both halves of the history; below is the calendar of months, days of the month, days of the week and hours: a coloured cell with a mark holds, a pale cell does not.
As of October 12, 2026: 2026 is −6.6% since the start of the year; the average year stood at +18.7% by this day. Over the next 90 days the price ended higher in 3 of 8 past years.
What holds
- ▼ holdsDay 21 of the month — weaker than usual: 38% of days profitable; a usual day 51%.
- ▲ holdsDay 1 of the month — stronger than usual: 61% of days profitable; a usual day 51%.
- ▲ holdsDay 19 of the month — stronger than usual: 60% of days profitable; a usual day 51%.
- ▲ holdsDay 20 of the month — stronger than usual: 60% of days profitable; a usual day 51%.
- ▼ holdsThursday — weaker than usual: 45% of days profitable; a usual day 51%.
- ▲ holdsThe 21:00 UTC hour — stronger than usual: 55% of hours profitable; a usual hour 51%.
- ▲ holdsLate hours, 21:00–24:00 UTC — stronger than usual: 55% of sessions profitable; a usual session 52%.
- ▲ holdsThe 22:00 UTC hour — stronger than usual: 53% of hours profitable; a usual hour 51%.
2 more that hold
- ▼ holdsAsia, 00:00–08:00 UTC — weaker than usual: 50% of sessions profitable; a usual session 52%.
- ▼ holdsThe 01:00 UTC hour — weaker than usual: 49% of hours profitable; a usual hour 51%.
The rest does not hold: 60 of 70 checked calendar cells did not repeat on both halves of the history. Months cannot be checked yet: there are 8 full years of history.
Calendar
Months
Too little history to check.
Days of the month
The day of the month. The number is the share of profitable days. A usual day is profitable in 51% of cases.
Days of the week
The number is the share of profitable days. A usual day is profitable in 51% of cases.
Hours of the day
Time UTC. The number is the share of profitable hours. A usual hour is profitable in 51% of cases.
Sessions
The number is the share of profitable sessions. A usual session is profitable in 52% of cases.
Calendar events
The number is the share of profitable days on the days of the event. A usual day of the same years is profitable in 51% of cases.
The average path of the year
The average path of the year
The result since the start of the year, 8 full years (2018–2025). The band holds the middle half of the years.
Months year by year: table
| Month | Profitable years | Median | Best year | Worst year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 5 of 8 | +5.1% | +39.8%2023 | −25.0%2018 |
| February | 6 of 8 | +5.7% | +43.6%2024 | −17.7%2025 |
| March | 5 of 8 | +6.5% | +30.1%2021 | −33.0%2018 |
| April | 5 of 8 | +8.4% | +34.5%2020 | −17.3%2022 |
| May | 4 of 8 | +1.3% | +60.8%2019 | −35.4%2021 |
| June | 3 of 8 | −4.6% | +26.9%2019 | −37.3%2022 |
| July | 6 of 8 | +12.4% | +24.0%2020 | −7.1%2019 |
| August | 2 of 8 | −7.6% | +13.6%2021 | −13.9%2022 |
| September | 3 of 8 | −4.3% | +7.4%2024 | −13.5%2019 |
| October | 6 of 8 | +10.6% | +39.9%2021 | −3.9%2025 |
| November | 3 of 8 | −11.7% | +42.8%2020 | −36.6%2018 |
| December | 2 of 8 | −3.3% | +46.9%2020 | −18.8%2021 |
There are 8 full years of history: too few to check the months on two halves. Every row is a record of the past. A usual month of Bitcoin is profitable in 52% of cases. The bar shows the share of profitable years.
2026 so far: Jan −10.2%, Feb −14.9%, Mar +2.0%, Apr +11.8%, May −3.5%, Jun −20.4%, Jul +7.3%, Aug +25.0%, Sep +6.4%.
The marks are counted on the whole history; with fewer years the table is a record of those years.
Days of the week and calendar events: tables
Days of the week
| Day | Profitable daysProfitable | Median dayMedian |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | 49%of 418 | −0.03% |
| Tuesday | 50%of 418 | +0.01% |
| Wednesday | 53%of 418 | +0.26% |
| Thursday ▼ holds | 45%of 417 | −0.22% |
| Friday | 52%of 417 | +0.17% |
| Saturday | 55%of 417 | +0.12% |
| Sunday | 53%of 417 | +0.09% |
A usual day is profitable in 51% of cases. “Holds” — the pattern showed up on both halves of the history: ▲ stronger than usual, ▼ weaker.
Calendar events
| Event | Profitable daysProfitable | Usual dayUsual |
|---|---|---|
| First three days of the month | 55%of 288 | 51% |
| Turn of the year | 57%of 56 | 51% |
| Fed decision day | 59%of 63 | 51% |
| Day before a US holiday | 55%of 74 | 51% |
The share of profitable days on the days of the event against all days of the same years. The turn of the year is the last five trading days of the year and the first two.
Entry–exit windows
There are 8 full years of history: windows cannot be checked on two halves. Below are the windows that were profitable almost every year, the nearest first: 10 on this history; on a randomly shifted calendar there are 8.8 on average.
| Window | Profitable years | Median | Worst year | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 27 – Oct 2630 days running | 8 of 8 | +11.2% | +1.1%2018 | running |
| Oct 25 – Nov 714 days in 12 d | 7 of 8 | +5.4% | −6.9%2025 | in 12 d |
| Nov 27 – Dec 37 days in 45 d | 7 of 8 | +2.9% | −0.2%2021 | in 45 d |
| Dec 18 – Dec 247 days in 66 d | 7 of 8 | +4.0% | −7.0%2024 | in 66 d |
| Jan 1 – Jan 77 days in 80 d | 7 of 8 | +5.6% | −10.1%2022 | in 80 d |
| Jan 23 – Jan 297 days in 102 d | 7 of 8 | +4.6% | −4.5%2019 | in 102 d |
| Feb 7 – May 790 days in 117 d | 7 of 8 | +23.6% | −16.3%2022 | in 117 d |
| Jun 14 – Jul 2845 days in 244 d | 8 of 8 | +12.2% | +2.2%2024 | in 244 d |
Halving cycle
The result of the calendar year by its place in the cycle. There are 2 cycles in this history: a picture of the past, not a pattern.
- Year before the halving2019: +94.3% · 2023: +156%
- Halving year2020: +302% · 2024: +121%
- Year after the halving2021: +59.8% · 2025: −6.3%
- Second year after2018: −73.0% · 2022: −64.2%
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Questions and answers
What is Bitcoin seasonality?
The way the price tended to move at the same time of the year, month, week or day in the past. This page shows it for Bitcoin on 8 full years of history, 2018–2025.
Which months were the best and the worst for Bitcoin?
Over 2018–2025 the month profitable most often was July (6 of 8 years, median +12.4%); the month profitable least often was August (2 of 8 years, median −7.6%).
What do coloured and pale cells mean?
A coloured cell with ▲ or ▼ is a pattern that held on both halves of the history. A pale cell is a record of the past: it did not repeat on both halves. A hatched cell has too little history to check.
How many years of history are used?
8 full years: 2018–2025. The current year is drawn on top and does not enter the numbers. The chart and the table of months can be switched to the last years only.
How often is the page updated?
Once a day. The numbers by month, weekday and event change once a year, when a year ends; the line of the current year and the path ahead move every day.
Is it free?
Yes. The page is free and opens without sign-up; a free account adds the terminal with the chart, alerts and the other Liqwall data.