WTI · 40 full years of history · updated dailyWTI crude oil seasonality
What held for WTI crude oil in the past and what did not. At the top is the list of patterns that held on both halves of the history; below is the calendar: a coloured cell with a mark holds, a pale cell does not.
As of October 6, 2026: 2026 is +68.1% since the start of the year; the average year stood at +7.8% by this day. Over the next 90 days the price ended higher in 18 of 40 past years.
What holds
- ▼ holdsNovember — weaker than usual: profitable in 14 of 40 years; a usual month in 53%.
- ▲ holdsTurn of the year — stronger than usual: 59% of days profitable; a usual day 51%.
- ▲ holdsDay before a US holiday — stronger than usual: 59% of days profitable; a usual day 51%.
- ▼ holdsMonday — weaker than usual: 49% of days profitable; a usual day 51%.
- ▲ holdsThursday — stronger than usual: 53% of days profitable; a usual day 51%.
The rest does not hold: 47 of 52 checked calendar cells did not repeat on both halves of the history.
Calendar
Months
The number is the share of profitable years. A usual month is profitable in 53% of years.
Days of the month
The day of the month. The number is the share of profitable days. A usual day is profitable in 51% of cases.
Days of the week
The number is the share of profitable days. A usual day is profitable in 51% of cases.
Calendar events
The number is the share of profitable days on the days of the event. A usual day of the same years is profitable in 51% of cases.
The average path of the year
The average path of the year
The result since the start of the year, 40 full years (1986–2025). The band holds the middle half of the years.
Months year by year: table
| Month | Profitable years | Median | Best year | Worst year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| January | 20 of 40 | +0.1% | +19.2%2019 | −23.4%1986 |
| February | 22 of 40 | +1.8% | +18.0%2021 | −32.4%1986 |
| March | 25 of 40 | +3.1% | +23.3%1999 | −54.2%2020 |
| April | 25 of 40 | +2.5% | +30.5%1986 | −18.7%2003 |
| May | 19 of 40 | −0.4% | +85.0%2020 | −17.5%2012 |
| June | 23 of 40 | +3.0% | +11.7%2000 | −13.3%1988 |
| July | 26 of 40 | +0.8% | +20.6%1990 | −20.8%2015 |
| August | 19 of 40 | −0.1% | +41.9%1986 | −13.3%1994 |
| September | 19 of 40 | −0.4% | +44.0%1990 | −12.9%2008 |
| October | 19 of 40 | −0.6% | +18.1%2011 | −32.4%2008 |
| November ▼ holds | 14 of 40 | −3.8% | +26.8%2020 | −22.2%2018 |
| December | 22 of 40 | +3.2% | +18.2%1986 | −20.5%2000 |
A usual month of WTI crude oil is profitable in 53% of cases. The bar shows the share of profitable years. “Holds” — the pattern showed up on both halves of the history: ▲ stronger than usual, ▼ weaker.
2026 so far: Jan +12.6%, Feb +3.8%, Mar +53.6%, Apr +5.6%, May −16.1%, Jun −22.6%, Jul +22.1%, Aug +1.0%, Sep +11.7%.
The marks are counted on the whole history; with fewer years the table is a record of those years.
Days of the week and calendar events: tables
Days of the week
| Day | Profitable daysProfitable | Median dayMedian |
|---|---|---|
| Monday ▼ holds | 49%of 1745 | 0.00% |
| Tuesday | 49%of 1917 | 0.00% |
| Wednesday | 52%of 1894 | +0.16% |
| Thursday ▲ holds | 53%of 1874 | +0.16% |
| Friday | 52%of 1836 | +0.11% |
A usual day is profitable in 51% of cases.
Calendar events
| Event | Profitable daysProfitable | Usual dayUsual |
|---|---|---|
| First three days of the month | 50%of 1412 | 51% |
| Turn of the year ▲ holds | 59%of 275 | 51% |
| Fed decision day | 48%of 248 | 52% |
| Day before a US holiday ▲ holds | 59%of 340 | 51% |
The share of profitable days on the days of the event against all days of the same years. The turn of the year is the last five trading days of the year and the first two.
Entry–exit windows
Windows that were profitable (or losing) on both halves of the history, the nearest first. 8 windows like these were found on this history; on a randomly shifted calendar there are 6.8 on average.
| Window | Profitable years | Median | Worst year | Starts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10 – Nov 2345 days, fall running | 12 of 40 | −4.9% | −43.1%2008 | running |
| Nov 10 – Dec 930 days, fall in 28 d | 14 of 40 | −3.2% | −31.2%2008 | in 28 d |
| Dec 12 – Dec 2514 days, rise in 60 d | 32 of 40 | +2.2% | −31.0%2008 | in 60 d |
| Dec 20 – Feb 1760 days, rise in 68 d | 30 of 40 | +4.7% | −26.6%1990 | in 68 d |
| Jan 25 – Feb 714 days, fall in 104 d | 13 of 40 | −1.7% | −16.8%1991 | in 104 d |
| Mar 16 – Apr 2945 days, rise in 154 d | 31 of 40 | +6.7% | −52.6%2020 | in 154 d |
| Jun 11 – Jul 121 days, rise in 241 d | 28 of 40 | +1.9% | −10.7%1988 | in 241 d |
| Jul 24 – Jul 307 days, rise in 284 d | 29 of 40 | +2.2% | −9.6%1989 | in 284 d |
Windows that looked reliable by the past years turned out profitable the next year in 59% of cases; any window of the same length — in 55%.
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Questions and answers
What is WTI crude oil seasonality?
The way the price tended to move at the same time of the year, month, week or day in the past. This page shows it for WTI crude oil on 40 full years of history, 1986–2025.
Which months were the best and the worst for WTI crude oil?
Over 1986–2025 the month profitable most often was July (26 of 40 years, median +0.8%); the month profitable least often was November (14 of 40 years, median −3.8%).
What do coloured and pale cells mean?
A coloured cell with ▲ or ▼ is a pattern that held on both halves of the history. A pale cell is a record of the past: it did not repeat on both halves. A hatched cell has too little history to check.
How many years of history are used?
40 full years: 1986–2025. The current year is drawn on top and does not enter the numbers. The chart and the table of months can be switched to the last years only.
How often is the page updated?
Once a day. The numbers by month, weekday and event change once a year, when a year ends; the line of the current year and the path ahead move every day.
Is it free?
Yes. The page is free and opens without sign-up; a free account adds the terminal with the chart, alerts and the other Liqwall data.